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March 1, 2023

Mailbox Money Opportunities: New Real Estate Data Shows The Winners, Losers, And Where Distress Is Building Fast | Money Moves

In this episode of Millionaire Mindcast, the dynamic duo is back. Matty A and Ryan Breedwell jump into this past week's updates on world news, real estate, and market updates, the Mailbox Money opportunities, and how the new real estate data shows the...

In this episode of Millionaire Mindcast, the dynamic duo is back. Matty A and Ryan Breedwell jump into this past week's updates on world news, real estate, and market updates, the Mailbox Money opportunities, and how the new real estate data shows the winners, losers, and where distress is building fast. Find out, Tune in, and enjoy! 

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Matty A.: [00:00:00] Ooh, I am love. That is the hardest intro I've ever, that was hard, that intro. 

Ryan Breedwell: I'm not saying that that's, that's the coolest thing that's ever happened. That was harder than I thought, , I didn't even know what was gonna happen, and it was just dun, dun. That 

Matty A.: intro went hard. Somebody was on their piano just getting it.

Shout out to my man tone for making that bad boy happen. Welcome into today's show, y'all. You got a great episode of Money Moves for you guys with myself, Matt, a, your co-host, Mr. Ryan Breed well. [00:01:00] We are getting just dumped on in California right now with rain, unbelievable snow, and I'm not complaining.

I mean, the hotel is getting, it looks like a winter wonderland up in Lake Tahoe, which will be great for business, but it's not fun when you're trying to operate a hotel in. Conditions, white out blizzard conditions like they are today. So that's been fun. But we got a great episode for you guys where of course, you know, we talk all things stocks, real estate investing and personal finance to help you on your wealth building journey to a million and beyond.

We've got some interesting housing data that has come out this week. We're gonna talk about the winners and losers from all the housing reports and consumer confidence. Data just dropped today. Is it up? Is it down? We're gonna get Mr. Bradwell's take on the stock market and is it actually better than it looks and feels right now?

is it worse? And do we have more gloom and doom ahead? We are [00:02:00] going to be covering it all today. I wanna start out with this, Mr. Bradwell, I got a question for you. You got it. So, obviously we know the last 18 months a lot of asset classes have been getting, you know hit some harder than others, and I saw a report released today that one asset class has outperformed returns from stocks and cryptocurrencies.

Curious if you know what asset class I'm talking about, I 

Ryan Breedwell: could cheat and, and say that I do because you already told me . 

Matty A.: I was, I wasn't surpris. I loved your original answer. I wasn't surprised. What did I say? You said well, I said eggs. , you said eggs. Orange juice. 

Ryan Breedwell: Eggs and orange juice 

Matty A.: probably outperform both honestly.

Those assets are definitely up higher than the, the ones that we're talking about. Nearly all asset classes are down so far, over the past 18 months, but the market for secondhand luxury [00:03:00] watches secondhand have outperformed stocks and crypto, if you can believe it, 

Ryan Breedwell: I can believe that. Uh, You, because you, you have to remember, people are blowing a lot of the money.

They. Prior and they can't afford the original. So their, the resell on those watches is great. A lot of times they appreciate, so you can buy 'em for a price and some for a higher price. That's a pretty good. It's like 

Matty A.: buying a house. It's pretty good. Yeah. I mean, it was, it was the secondary market that ultimately a lot of those profits were realized in.

So interesting to see how, you know, certain assets. Right. When you, and I think I, I'm, I'm curious on your thoughts on alternative asset classes and, and kind of the rise of alternative asset classes based on culture, based on consumerism that have really kind of, I guess, developed or blossomed over the last decade were these types.

Of asset classes always around. Mm-hmm. and we know about them or have new ones come onto the scene and kind of has, you know, social media, mainstream, you know, [00:04:00] news and, and really kind of culture and society created more of a demand for these types of asset classes. 

Ryan Breedwell: I don't know what that used to be called, but it, it wasn't called alternatives.

I can't remember the name of the investment class. It used to be called prior to Alternatives, but it, they have been around for quite some time. This, the popularity in them had not gotten to the level where it's at today. And I just think people's when you have the advent of the internet and then people get the data level that they get, now people have a better understanding of those asset classes and understand.

They can derive yield and income from them in a way that you can't like normal assets that people invest in, which is just based on annualized return. Yeah. So I think that is why they've become very popular. I'm not a huge fan of, like the apps they're, they're just not as good as having, like I, we have a, I have in most of my portfolios, my non-stock portfolios, if I used funds, we'll throw some [00:05:00] alternative mutual funds in there from black.

Normally have like between four and 6% of the portfolio there and it's just better than cash and it's not a bond. Mm-hmm. and it's not as correlated to the stock market. And they tend to have large distributions on small amounts of money. So alternative asset classes I think are really. Key to a diversified portfolio cuz if you don't have them, your correlation to the stock market or, or the market as a whole on the upside and the downside is you're, you're too correlated.

If the s and p goes down by a hundred or by 50%, you don't want to go down by 50. If it goes up by 10, you don't wanna only go up by six. . So it's trying to find that balance and alternatives can help provide not necessarily annualized rate of return. Some can, but so what they can do is help with the total return by giving you a 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 12 plus percent yield on that asset.

Mm-hmm. , while in a semis safe place, just in a very, you know, a lot of times the stuff people invest in is like more sophisticated. It's not just, Hey, I own a share [00:06:00] of Hershey or a share of Microsoft. You know, Hey, I'm putting my money into the refinance of a ship. . So that's a lot more of a complicated thing to do, and there's funds that are available, and I really like the BlackRock funds that we.

That helped people get access to that, but in a way that's liquid, if we need to get out of it, I can just sell the mutual fund. Yeah. So the mutual fund has, you know, really got their, you know, toes in it and fingers in it. And that's one of the advantages of like doing syndication work on some of the deals that you give to our people that are subscribed, the accredited investors.

It just gives them an opportunity to not necessarily do the. But get a lot of the, and the lion's share of the rate of return on the asset class without having to have the professionalism or know how to do it. So alternatives are great. I think that if you don't have alternatives, it's a great idea to add to your portfolio.

Just not like you shouldn't put a hundred percent of your money into an alternative. It's an alternative investment. Yes. Meaning you have a basis before [00:07:00] you go into stuff like that, 

Matty A.: but they're. . Yeah, I mean I think that there's been so many that have kind of come onto the scene over the, the last few years.

And obviously with technology becoming you know, more advanced in kind of creating a bridge for people to cross and engage in these asset classes, we've seen the rise of them. Become a little bit more popular, especially right in some of these more fringe assets, right? I mean, you've got investing in spirits, you've got investing in, you know, watches, you've got, you know, diamonds, you've got wine, all kinds of different things now that people are finding ways to store money.

have it be something that's fun, generate some returns and yields. While of course, I think you still gotta be careful around one, like you said, they're alternatives for a reason. They come with their own set of risks. And at the same time, right, suitability wise, some are. , you're locked in a little bit longer.

Mm-hmm. , you know, some are, you know, more liquid. So making sure that [00:08:00] you understand what kind of alternatives you're investing in. But I think it's a fun way to kind of get out of, you know, sometimes when people, I feel like kind of get the itch of like the boring real estate investment, the boring stocks and bonds, right?

It is a cool way to kind of diversify a little bit and have it be something that's new and fun and may pair with a passion or something that. You know, looking to get more involved in and and still find a way to, to generate some returns and make investing right. A little bit sexy and a little bit fun.

But as you and I both know, right, going back to the foundation of investing, having a plan is usually gonna be something that's heavily allocated in your, you know, financial markets, in real estate, layering in some insurances, and then obviously, you know, having some of those playful. Smaller buckets that you can play in.

So before we dig into what you're seeing in the stock market, and I know a lot of people are feeling a little bit down, a little bit blue, I know you are on the stock market and [00:09:00] you know, the data that we've been seeing out, we're gonna, you know, get your take on sifting through some of that data and really get into, you know, the core of how bad is the market, what are we gonna see, you know, in the next few months?

And ultimately, hopefully the senti. For the entire year. Mm-hmm. . And before we dig into that, I just wanna make sure that the people who are, you know, new to the podcast and haven't taken advantage of the resources and all the things that we offer a Millionaire Mind, family and listeners, whether it's a free financial x-ray with you and your team, which consists of, we will 

Ryan Breedwell: take a look at your current investments, insurance, all that kind of stuff, aggregate it together.

Go over kind of some holes that we might find in the plan, make some recommendations on to improve that, and if you want to implement those recommendations, we'll help you do that. Generally speaking, we can help most people improve 

Matty A.: their bottom line. . And so if you guys want to take advantage of that or engage with Ryan and his team, text the word [00:10:00] x-ray to 8 4 4 4 4 7 15 55.

And for those of you who are accredit investors and investors in general that you know, want to know more about different syndication and investment opportunities, whether it's in businesses like the Green Coffee Company that we've been raising capital for. Whether it's for apartment building, syndications that we've done in the past, laundromats and different businesses or got some exciting stuff coming up here on one particular alternative investment that I'm involved in that we'll be sharing out here relatively soon.

Just text the word deals to 8 4 4 4 4 7 15 55. That'll get you on my credit investor list, and we have all kinds of other cool resources and things for you guys to check out. at millionaire mind So be sure to check out the website as well. But let's dive into what we've been seeing over the last week and really, you know, what feels like after the Fed shared their sentiments on the market, some of their concerns,

You know, we [00:11:00] had the discussion last week, 50 bips sounds outrageous. That'd be crazy aggressive and very concerning. We're more so in the camp of a 25, you know, basis point rate hike on the next meeting. How does the market respond to that? And ultimately, is that what we're going to see from your perspective?

Ryan Breedwell: Yeah. I was hoping that we would get a, a pause earlier than I think we are. So now I'm gonna have to revise that. Like I was saying, I believe last week. 25 basis points is likely going to be the rate hike at the next two meetings. So this one coming up and the one after that. And it's just because the data that a lot of the shelter data that we're getting is just lagging and is a lagging indicator.

And so it's taking time for that to catch up and show kind of the true scenario where we're at with inflation. There are things that are more expensive. Consumers are feeling the stickiness of inflation right now in all sorts of areas, but overall, the leading indicators and the leading economic data.

that is meaning that it's, it's more forward looking and present [00:12:00] data is saying that inflation is not only under control, but continuing to go down. And that was indicated today again by the case Schiller Price Index being down to 4.8% on an expected 5.8, which the 5.8 would've been a drop from the 6.4% last month.

So That type of stuff is shelter data is hon. Honestly, what's hurting us the most right now? That is the number one thing holding kind of the economy back. I think we're gonna be a range-bound probably for a while because of that. But I'm kind of still even though the interest rates are where they're at, I am 100% still sticking to my guns that we bottomed out in October.

Started a new bull market here in November of 2022. They generally take four to six months, probably six months on this cycle to really get roaring cuz people are gonna get rotated. Institutions are gonna take positions, options. All that kind of stuff. And right around May, I think that would be, we should see the stock market start to really start [00:13:00] catching legs and start moving forward in a positive way.

I think we'll get an indication sometime in July that they'll start pausing interest rates, and they're probably gonna cut interest rates sometime between October and December. . I do think some of, one of the funny things is people hate to listen to analysts and investors when the market's going good, but when the market's going bad, people like to listen to them.

So we have like Bank of America and I even believe Goldman Sachs saying that they believe freight cuts are gonna now be in. Quarter one of 2024. And these were the same banks. And in 2007 and 2008 were telling you that they weren't over leveraged. So you gotta balance you have to balance what you're hearing from the same people that told you that, you know, everything was okay when it wasn't.

Are now trying to tell you that things aren't okay and they probably are. So that's my position. I'm sticking to it. It's definitely gonna be choppy market for the next few months, but really still looking good. I, I still think as of right now to be, have a good setup to be potentially in that 4,400 zone on [00:14:00] the s and p 

Matty A.: by the end of the year.

so I would be failing our listeners if we didn't go back to your favorite bull or your favorite bear. It feels like the, the bull market that we've been kind of feeling pent up and is coming has kind of had some false starts. And to bring up Peter Schiff. Mm-hmm. , his last statement. That you can see here tone on the screen.

The January p c e confirms. His of course, bear sentiment that this disinflationary environment that many people have been talking about and continue to, you know, use to point to the future of this bull market coming around the corner is that disinflation is over. The inflation curve has turned upward again, and soon year over year numbers will be hitting new cycle highs.

Not only are the PCE numbers for January hotter than expected, but month over month and year over year, they're sequentially hot. [00:15:00] Then December. So with this data that has come out, what's your argument to that? Being that I think we both would probably agree the data is very lagging and maybe isn't necessarily representative of what the current climate is today.

But at the same time, are we in an inflationary environment again, and has the pendulum swung back in that direct. So again, 

Ryan Breedwell: I'll kind of say the same thing to start this, like I said about the banks, Peter Schiff has just not really had a track record of ever being Right . So I'll, I'll start by saying that and if you'd like, just go look up his funds.

They suck. Secondly to that, I don't agree with that. And there's a lot of reasons, , because you can cherry pick one piece of data and say that that's the, you know, that's the be all, end all of the hall hallmark. But PCE is not the hallmark data. Point to indicate anything [00:16:00] is one way or the other.

I saw people posting charts on Twitter on the 30 day and the 10 day moving average, and I was like, what the actual fuck is this? Nobody charts the 10 day and the 30 day moving average at. But you can do that and admit the chart will, will align with your story. My point being, I think there's a lot of people trying to find a narrative so they can sound right cuz nobody is brave enough to just say something and be wrong because for some reason people have to.

B in this, this stock market, this casino that we have. And somehow always pick the winning, always get the winning hand dealt to them and always pick the winning machine and always make the right decisions. And that's just not how it works in investing. So that, and painting that false narrative for people that they should expect that and that, you know, this is what the wealthy do and this is, you know, when you're doing it right, you don't ever take losses.

Peter Schiff. Blowing it for years. His fund's average less than three and a half percent. I mean, long term, I mean, that's garbage. You could close your eyes and buy a, a [00:17:00] fucking 20 year T treasury bill and average more than that. So it's really not hard. So, excuse my language here, I just, it just kind of is comical to me.

When you just have a name like, oh, it's Peter Schiff, who's Peter Schiff. I mean, it was Peter Schiff. So again, I'll get back to it. No yield curve is actually looking good and, and better. When we do see bonds kind of do their rallies and they're rallying in the right way. Short term debt is starting to, even though it did tick up pretty aggressively over the past 45 days, it's starting to pull back.

And then long-term debt is starting to have higher yields. So today we saw the five year and the two year pull down on yields and. 10 year and the 30 year pull up on yield. That's good that we want people to be paid more for longer term debt than shorter term debt, so that's good on the yield curve.

Conversely, almost 46% of the stocks trading in the stock market as a whole, were in the green today, indexes. Were in the red, but the indexes are not showing [00:18:00] the full picture. And as I said, Normally when we go into a brand new bull market, I've said this multiple times, the the starting area is gonna be small caps.

And if you look at a heat map of where there was money being made today, well, I'll give you a, a hint, small cap growth. And in fact, the average rate of return on small cap growth today was 36 basis points 0.36%. The average loss on value and blend small cap was less than one basis. So those areas of the market are still doing good while the overall market is not doing good.

And I just think people are rotating out of certain names, energy, industrials, healthcare, defensive equity names that generally people go into when the market's choppy, like where people were last year and where people were piling into at the beginning of this year and the end of last year. We also had the little bit of the January effect where we had a really big.

Run up in stocks, kind of a drunken rally on some garbage names that [00:19:00] didn't really need to be going up but did go up, and that kind of lulled people into the market, kind of into a, a bull trap right there. So those little things in the short term are causing some pullback. , but we're still on the long-term trajectory on the long-term trend line.

We're still above it and we're likely gonna bounce off of that here somewhere around the 39 to high 30 eights and continue to have another little bit of a rally. And I think that's what we're gonna do for the next few months. We're gonna be somewhat range-bound and so dollar cost aver. Putting money into the stock market consistently over these next six months is gonna be very important.

And really, people who have been putting money into the stock market over the past 15 months and continuously have been doing that are gonna be the ones that fare the best when this rally really sets in and starts to go because all those people are doing are buying assets. Averaging their internal cost down and, and getting ready to kind of light the dry powder.

It's just sitting there [00:20:00] pouring powder into this keg and saying, how much can I fill it up with 

Matty A.: before I light it? I'm just, I'm over here rubbing my hands cuz it's kind of like the way I look at is, you know, in the winter it gets a little cold and you gotta do whatever you gotta do to kind of, you know, stay warm in the meantime.

But when the furnace kicks back on and the fire starts blazing, You're, you're feeling good. It's 

Ryan Breedwell: a beautiful time when you, I had people I remember from 2020 to 2021 making triple digit returns and ETFs, which is just equity ETFs, which is ridiculous. That's not normal. . So we shouldn't get, I don't think we're gonna rally like that maybe in one year, but when you have the stock market go up and continuously go, people are going to absolutely flow back into the market.

Like it is a, it's a crack rock. And, and their name is Hunter Biden . 

Matty A.: I knew, I knew you were going there. I was waiting. I was waiting. 

Ryan Breedwell: So that, that is that's what I'm excited for. I'm excited for that. We're for, like I said, about to go into the 16th month of this Bear market. It's been a, [00:21:00] it's been a longer than expected or anticipated by anybody market generally because the technicals are getting thrown off by lots of stuff that we haven't dealt with before.

Matty A.: But yeah, there's so many different variables this go around that I think we're hard to account for based on historical patterns and data. Yep. And as the dust continues to settle, Right. Maybe it goes on a little bit longer than any of us would like or maybe expected, but I think this isn't gonna be.

for the newer investors and, and really just for the, the seasoned and savvy investors. Cause I think I need to hear this all the time myself, is it's not gonna be the last time we face another challenging market like this that tries your patience. That test your resolve and your grit to power through, you know, some of the mental, physical financial burdens that are in front of us at certain seasons of our life.

And that's where just having the plan and the, the discipline to fall back on your default, you know, habits [00:22:00] that you committed to and agreed. In the beginning when you started doing 'em, were for the best in terms of your long-term health, your long-term financial success, right? You, you have to really remove a lot of those emotions and, and remind yourself that this is, this is the journey.

I loved what Morgan Howell said in his book, the Psychology of Money, which is volatility is the price you pay for getting wealthy. And when you look at all the people who have really not only weathered challenging financial storms and times, But thrived through them or post them and continued to pass on generational wealth.

I mean, some of the wealthiest families, some of the wealthiest businesses. They weren't immune to the financial and economic and world and global challenges that were going on at, you know, over the last however many years of that economic system. Right? And yeah, they found a way to push through them and they found a way to ultimately Win [00:23:00] through them, and those are the things that I have to constantly remind myself of, no matter how challenging times get or how emotionally uneasy my stomach feels by doing some of the things that feel counterintuitive to the emotion in that moment.

When you look back in the rear view mirror and you're like, man, thank God I did that. I didn't follow, you know, my emotion. That ended up being something that was a great financial decision over the long term. That's where having a real plan, good counsel around you and being just involved in the right conversations can get you outta your own head from making some, you know, mistakes or decisions that may not serve you based on the emotion driving versus going, okay, these people have the same fears, you know, that I do.

They are following through with the commitments and the, the plans that they decided were best aligned with their goals long term. And I think that's something that I constantly have to remind myself, especially in times, like right now. Yeah. 

Ryan Breedwell: I mean, a good example of what you just said is like a company like [00:24:00] ge you know who I mean, was down to almost $30 a share from being $180.

Long term dividend paying. Huge, huge, huge part of the Dow, removed from the Dow. Now it's an s and p component. Th that company had had to go through some crazy headwinds, completely rebrand. They have to do GE Healthcare now. They have to spin off all these companies. But instead of folding under pressure, they've revamped themselves.

And now I think they're trading at, I dunno, 80, $90 a share. So a 300% rate of return. Since that downfall in 2020 and they're on their way back to being the company they were and, and now have potential to be, and it, it would take that bad, you know, hit on the chin to go, to get to where they're going to get to.

but they had a choice whether to fold and go through bankruptcy and sell their assets off or completely reorganize and restructure their company and keep that brand going, and that's what they chose to do. So to your point, that [00:25:00] is exactly what 

Matty A.: you have to do. Well, if you were looking for some exciting opportunities and massively distressed and discounted properties in the real estate.

Space, you're gonna have to wait a little bit longer. Lot of data has come out this week regarding the overall strength of the single family housing market. Still, in spite of a lot of the headwinds that are, you know, pushing back what was an insanely hot real estate market, but this last week pending home sales increased 8.1%.

Data released for the month of January. It's still down 24.1% year over year. But still overall this is, you know a pretty good sign. An indicator forward looking of home sales based on contract signings. And obviously I think part of that you know, was due to some rate easing where people were getting off the [00:26:00] fence.

But overall, Rates still aren't that great. They remain much higher than they were to begin the month with. An average lender moving up from 6% or 5.99% to 6.78% since February 2nd. The 30 year fix right now is I think at 6.78%, which is still pretty crazy. But when you got inventory, Which this last week of inventory data decreased 1.6% week over week.

So when you got inventory and supply still so low and you still got a relatively decent amount of equity in the marketplace, that's still trying to find a way, you know, to find a home. Obviously for a lot of people, right, A lot of that free dry powder is gonna go into their primary residence. Mm-hmm.

You know, inventory is. , you know, compared to the same week in 2022, but it is down almost 48% compared to the same week in 2019. . So we [00:27:00] still have, you know, a long ways to go for inventory, inventory to catch up. And when you see, you know, pending home sales data like that, that's telling you demand is, is strong, especially if it's increasing.

So I think that's gonna be something that you know, will be. Important to pay attention to on the, the pending home sales and you know, where rates end up because, you know, , when the Fed sees this kind of data, I mean, what do you think, you know, Jerome Powell and the, the Federal Open Markets committees are saying right now when they see this kind of housing data and how they're deciding, what do they do with rates going forward?

Ryan Breedwell: They're gonna say that their suspicions are correct and they need to continue raising rates and that. I don't fault them for that. Based on the metrics they're using, I just think the metrics they're using are incorrect. And if they use different metrics, we would be in a different spot with the 

Matty A.: economy right now.

Well, yeah. I'm curious cuz I think that that's an interesting conversation right? Around what data [00:28:00] or metrics. Could they maybe be adjusting to, based on new times, new landscapes, new access to technology that 

Ryan Breedwell: could remove OER in the shelter data, and they need to make case scher a price price index, a part of the housing data.

I mean, those two things probably fix the problem completely. Yeah. 

Matty A.: Yeah. That's an interesting thought, right, of like, why, why don't it? It's 

Ryan Breedwell: almost like, why, why is a C P I wage index tied so much to oil? And then the, and then. that has they use that for retirees. Retirees don't use that much oil on as much as somebody that's working on a day-to-day basis.

So why would that be tied so much to their cost of living adjustments on their social security payments? Yeah. Doesn't really make a ton of sense. Does it? , that's, it's just the way, unfortunately they do it sometimes until I. There's a lot of things that are, I would say, are long in the tooth that need some looking at, but some retooling.

It makes no, with the amount of technology and how fast we can get data today while we're looking back at stuff [00:29:00] that's 90 days, 140, 150 days old to make decisions for today. That's just absolutely so stupid to 

Matty A.: me. Well, it'll be interesting to see. Pending home sales due in the coming months. I mean, year over year pending transactions dropped almost 25%.

So what they are doing is working in some capacity, but if it starts trending in the wrong direction, it's gonna be interesting to see how they play this interest rate game home values. This last week, both the Case Scher House Price Index and the Federal Housing Finance Agency for December the, that data was released.

So the s and p Core Logic case sch. National Home Price Index covering all nine US census divisions. Broken up across the, the US reported a 5.8% annual gain in December, which is down from 7.6% in the previous month, so coming down a little bit. The month over month in decrease in the seasonally adjusted case, sheller national Index [00:30:00] was at negative 0.35%, six consecutive month over month, decrease a slightly larger D decrease than in November, and the largest declines mm-hmm were in Las Vegas at negative 1.5% Phoenix, negative 1.3% in Portland, negative 1.3%, which were markets that really saw one.

Aggressive growth during the pandemic but are starting to slow down. San Francisco's fallen 12.7% from the peak in May of 2022 and really was the first case. Scher City with a year over year decline of negative 4.2%. Seattle is now down to at negative 1.8% year over year, which I find. You know a validating point I guess for the Fed.

Some of these larger, you know, metropolises that were just insanely hot, crazy demand are starting to decline and, and really kind of catch up a little bit, which is ultimately what they wanna see. [00:31:00] The ones that fared the best. Miami, Tampa and Atlanta reported the highest year over year gains among the 20 cities.

In December, Miami led the way at 15.9% year over year price. People want that food, that, that sun, that sand followed by Tampa in second with a 13.9% increase in Atlanta and third 10.4% increase. So , interesting to see, you know, what the, the single family housing market is doing. But what I can tell you is there is a little bit of a storm Bruin in commercial real estate, and that's really where I'm interested in paying the most attention to.

Obviously if you're a single family investor, you know, tracking the data that is coming out in the housing reports is very important. And if you're a commercial real estate investor, We're seeing some, when I start to see the big boys and girls skin their knees and kind of do a little bit of a face plant we're seeing some of the top landlords across the country and some of the largest commercial square footage in the country [00:32:00] defaulting on their loan payments on the buildings that they own.

So that's something to be paying attention to and I'm already seeing some. opportunities that actually are penciling and starting to make some sense. I still think we got a long ways to go for commercial real estate, especially with certain asset classes. But Freddie Mac mortgage reported Serious delinquency rate unchanged in January.

Fannie Mae noted a decrease slightly single family serious delinquency rate in January was 0.66%, unchanged from 0.66%. And then in Freddy, this is where I, I just, it caught my eye. Multi-family delinquency. . Note that multi-family from Freddie Mac report multi-family delinquencies have been increased slightly and we're at 0.12% in January, up from 0.07% in January of 2022.

So I think it's gonna be interesting to pay attention to [00:33:00] what happens with multi-family because that one was probably the hottest. And I think that will be interesting in telling that if those numbers start to. In a negative, you know, context for that asset class. Or at least start softening.

You're for sure gonna see all the other errors, cuz that one was the most insulated out of all the asset classes due to the pandemic shelter, that kind of stuff. But that being said, , you know, asking rents are falling. And, you know, this is something that I think will tie back into C P I and P C E which will hopefully, you know, forecast and project out what kind of trends we might be seeing in, you know, the commercial and housing spaces.

I do think that there's gonna be an insane opportunity for readaptive use in commercial spaces. I mean, I'm looking at one right outside the studio right now, which is a big vacant empty Kmart building, and you're gonna see a lot of big. You're gonna see a lot of big [00:34:00] that you're gonna see, I think is just, that's 

Ryan Breedwell: the donut.

That's where people do donuts on 

Matty A.: Friday nights. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I hear 'em outside my, my office all the time, but you're, you're gonna see Kmart, you're gonna see big office buildings, you're gonna see, you know, I mean there's massive amounts of vacancies right now in San Francisco and office. So I think, you know, you're gonna see people.

Get creative with readaptive use in certain commercial assets that are gonna make them a fortune and be very successful. But that doesn't mean that if you're not a big institutional player, you can't take advantage of the commercial opportunities that are out there and available and are, and are gonna be coming more plentiful in the coming months.

So, getting clear on your criteria, getting your banking relationship dialed in, you know, looking at creative seller financing options and how you can make deals pencil and make a win-win in the short term. While you restabilize assets, then go to refinance them and get permanent debt. I think it's gonna be a an exciting time for investors over the next few years and definitely wanna make sure you take advantage of it.

And [00:35:00] if you're not one of those people that actively wants to be out doing it, then join my accredit investor list and I'll get some deals in front of you by texting the word deals to 844.447.1555 With that being said, we will keep you guys in the loop on all things stocks, real estate investing, and personal finance.

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